Behavioural Finance and Dual Thinking

We are going to take a look at how you can guard against emotional mistakes and facilitate better investment decision making. But first – it should come as no surprise to learn that we humans are not always as rational as we think we are. Even when it comes to making those big and hugely important decisions about our money.

Theories of economics and what could be called ‘standard finance,’ all rely on one thing…people behaving rationally. And while you or I may have a fairly liberal definition of what is ‘rational’ – financial economists use a far more specific definition.

Behavioural Finance and Dual Thinking
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The Myth of the Rational Investor: Understanding Cognitive Biases in Financial Decisions

Economists such as Merton Miller and Franco Modigliani once suggested that a rational investor would always prefer more wealth to less. According to their theory, a rational investor avoids cognitive and emotional errors, making every decision with the intent of maximising their benefit. In this ideal world, no shortcuts are used, and each decision is perfectly calculated.

However, this picture of the “rational investor” doesn’t hold up in the real world. Studies consistently show that investors often act irrationally, especially in stressful or uncertain conditions. Meir Statman, a finance professor, highlights in his book Behavioural Finance that “normal investors are extremely susceptible to cognitive and emotional biases,” and they care about more than just the financial benefits of investing.

Cognitive Biases and Decision-Making

So, how do these biases impact decision-making? One of the simplest frameworks to understand this is dual-system thinking, a concept from behavioural science.

System 1: The Intuitive System

System 1 is our automatic, fast-thinking system. It’s emotional, reactive, and works quickly without much reflection. This system can be incredibly useful in many situations. For instance, when you drive to work, you rely on System 1 to follow familiar routes and make decisions quickly. Most of the time, it’s a smooth ride.

However, when faced with a market downturn, System 1 can trigger immediate, emotional responses. You might panic and think, “The market is crashing! I need to sell everything!” This emotional bias can lead to poor financial decisions—such as selling low or buying high.

System 2: The Analytical System

In contrast, System 2 is slower and more logical. It requires conscious effort, and it’s here that we think analytically, taking time to assess the situation. When you’re choosing investments for long-term goals like retirement, relying on System 1 might not be the best approach.

Sometimes, however, even System 2 can be difficult to access without the right knowledge or guidance. This is where professional advice becomes invaluable.

Example: Facing a Market Downturn

To illustrate how System 1 and System 2 work in practice, let’s consider how an investor might react during a market downturn:

  • System 1 thinking (emotional and anxious):

    • “Oh no, my portfolio has dropped in value. I should have never invested. Maybe I should just get all my money out while I can!”

  • System 2 thinking (methodical and analytical):

    • “Market fluctuations are normal. The value of my portfolio will likely rise again over time.”

    • “If I sell now, I’ll realise a loss. It might be better to wait it out, as markets are cyclical.”

    • “Investing is a long-term strategy, so short-term changes shouldn’t cause panic—unless I need the cash urgently.”

The Role of a Trusted Adviser

This is where working with a knowledgeable financial adviser can make all the difference. A professional financial adviser has years of experience in managing investments, learning how to use System 2 effectively. Without this experience, an investor is more likely to fall into the trap of emotional, System 1 responses.

A trusted adviser helps you build a financial plan that is logical and free from emotional bias. By guiding you through market fluctuations and offering objective advice, an adviser ensures that your decisions are based on reason, not emotion.

Conclusion: Making Better Financial Decisions

The mind is a complex and fascinating thing. While we can’t eliminate human behavioural elements, understanding how our thinking systems work can help us make better decisions. By recognising when to rely on System 1 versus System 2, and by seeking professional advice, we can navigate the world of investing more effectively.

If you’d like to learn more about how professional financial advice can help you make informed decisions, contact us today. One of our Wealth Managers will be happy to discuss how we can support your financial journey.

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